Where’s the advantage in Saturday’s title fight?

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Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder odds

Fury odds
-280
Crazier odds
+230
More less
9.5 (+110 / -150)
Place
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Time
About. 11:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN à la carte
Odds from Saturday and via Caesars.

It’s the trilogy fight we’ve been waiting for almost two years: Fury vs. Wilder III.

Reigning WBC and linear champion Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) has a chance to deepen his legend as the baddest man on the planet with a win, while Deontay Wilder (42-1 -1, 41 KOs) is looking to avenge a brutal loss of TKO that has plagued him since February 2020.

Let’s dig straight in and break down the match.

Combat analysis

Boxing is a sport that is often talked about as much for its history as for its present. Iconic fights, memorable rivalries, and epic tales of victory or defeat are handed down over the decades, creating a rich history that fans can draw upon when a familiar situation arises.

Within this rich history, trilogy fights represent a holy grail in sports – especially in the heavyweight division – and the best of them give us unforgettable names (The Fight of the Century, The Thrilla in Manilla) and moments (Fan Man).

This trilogy also has those moments. Fury’s eyes widened when he heard the countdown when their first meeting became a meme, but it also proved that he was as tough as them.

Sadly, Wilder’s loss and the 19-month-old tirade that followed about how he was cheated – denigrating his former coach, the refs, Fury’s gloves, his pre-fight outfit and everything but his own approach. – diverted some of the spotlight from the quality of both. such fighters are and how rare it is to have two top heavyweights in the ring in this boxing age.

In the first fight of this series, which seems a long time ago, Wilder was the most aggressive fighter and he spent most of the fight chasing Fury around the ring. He actually took out Fury 430-327, but only landed 16% of his total hits and 17% of his powerful hits. Still, Wilder managed to land two knockdowns in a classic bout that ended in a draw.

In Fight # 2, Fury was the clear aggressor between the two and was able to neutralize Wilder’s infamous right hand by encumbering the former champion and backing him up with his powerful jab. Fury’s height became a big issue for Wilder, even though both men weighed more than in the first fight.

Fury’s overall skill in throwing the jab made it nearly impossible for Wilder to land a clean punch with his right hand.

And Wilder hasn’t had much else up his sleeve for most of his career when the right hand doesn’t land. So what will be different in this fight?

Wilder has had almost two years to watch movies and train in the areas he’s been deficient in throughout his career. Despite all the excuses, he knows full well that Fury won thanks to his versatility. Fury took Wilder’s best shot of 2018, managed to recover from it, then came back and left Wilder stumped for seven rounds in the rematch.

Wilder has since worked on his movements and striking angles with new trainer (and former opponent) Malik Scott. It is not impossible for a fighter to add to his repertoire at any stage of his career, but in a high stakes title fight against one of the best fighters in the world with adrenaline and emotion in his veins, Wilder will have to apply these skills on which he has been working since February 2020.

If Wilder can throw a legitimate blow to knock Fury back and instead of backing up and waiting for a single knockout, he’s got a much better chance.

It remains to be seen whether or not he will.

Fury vs. Wilder Pick

This fight really depends on which version of Wilder appears. The ‘Gypsy King’ is a born fighter, he does this stuff in his sleep and he had a much longer layoff than the 19 months between fights # 2 and # 3. I expect him to dance and taunt Wilder while keeping the pressure on the former champion.

I don’t like that Wilder got into this fight even heavier than he was in the second fight – he weighed 238 pounds, which is the most he’s weighed as a pro – but he has also been pushed by Fury. Part of it was just Wilder’s approach, but I think there was a concerted effort on his part to be as strong as he can come in.

Fury’s silver odds (-280) suggest he wins this fight 70% of the time with Wilder having about a 30% chance. It seems a bit too shady in Fury’s direction, in my opinion, considering the first fight was a draw. Wilder’s odds went down a bit, he was +245 in July and +230 on fight day. I also don’t bet male though.

I think the value is total here, especially the 8.5-plus-round prop at Caesars. I think both men want a knockout, and these two massive human beings will start to wear down before this fight makes a decision.

However, I think Wilder’s broken eardrum in the rematch is overlooked. He no longer needs excuses as to why he didn’t come up with a better game plan, but his balance was completely upset after this point in the fight and he didn’t look like the “Bronze Bomber” we have. seen before. years.

I expect Wilder to turn things around here and force Fury to stick to what he can do instead of waiting for the right shot. I will bet this fight to go over 8.5 rounds at +110, but I will also look to bet it live.

The choice : Over 8.5 (+110)


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